By asahifile 
Attacks on merchant shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest weekly level since the war between the United States, Israel and Iran began, according to a BBC Verify analysis of reports to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). Twelve vessels were struck between October 5 and 11, up from ten the week before — and the escalation is now visible in the oil market: exports through the strait slipped to roughly 12.6 million barrels per day on October 13, down from 15 million at the end of September, according to data from trade-intelligence firm Kpler.
A record week — and a sunken container ship
The past ten days have produced a grim series of milestones. Six vessels were hit on Sunday, October 11 alone, the worst single-day toll since the war began, and four more ships have reported attacks so far this week. UKMTO issued four fresh warnings covering October 13, describing three container ships and one tanker struck by projectiles of unknown origin.
The most serious incident was the loss of the GFS Pride, a Singapore-flagged container ship struck while transiting the strait on October 13. The vessel caught fire and sank the following day; Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority confirmed that all 21 crew members were evacuated safely. Reuters reported that a dry bulk carrier has also since sunk near the strait, weeks after being hit. The UN’s International Maritime Organization counts at least 24 seafarers killed across 106 confirmed incidents since the fighting started, and the Joint Maritime Information Center continues to rate the threat to shipping in the strait as “severe,” warning that further attacks are highly likely.
Convoys are keeping the oil moving — for now
That oil is flowing at all reflects an improvised system of protection. The US Navy has been assisting tankers through the chokepoint, and the number of assisted transits in the first ten days of October was up 85 percent compared with the same period in August. Most crude leaving Gulf Arab states now moves on a “shuttle” model: smaller tankers load up and run the strait under escort, then transfer their cargo to larger vessels waiting in the Gulf of Oman.
Even so, September’s recovery has stalled. Kpler’s figures show flows at 12.6 million barrels per day on October 13, well below the pre-war baseline of roughly 17 million. Iranian exports, meanwhile, remain entirely halted under the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and vessels.
Iran is widening the map of risk
Analysts say Tehran has adjusted its tactics rather than conceding the corridor. Martin Kelly, chief executive of Orbital Risk Intelligence, told BBC Verify that Iran now mounts “almost daily or numerous attacks each day,” with the aim of impeding passage and discouraging others from sailing at all. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy has declared that its operations will not be confined to the strait and announced a “new deployment formation” across the region. The danger zone has already stretched beyond Hormuz: on October 8 a tanker was hit by multiple projectiles north of Qatar, more than 500 kilometers from the strait, leaving several crew members injured.
Why the arithmetic matters
Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes through Hormuz, which is why a record week of strikes matters well beyond the Gulf. Three pressures stand out. First, the shuttle-and-escort model that revived exports concentrates risk: every successful attack undermines confidence in the whole arrangement. Second, the spread of incidents into the Gulf of Oman and the northern Gulf forces navies and insurers to price risk across a far wider area, pushing war-risk premiums — and ultimately freight and fuel costs — higher. Third, Iran appears to be pursuing attrition rather than closure, keeping the strait technically open while making each transit uncertain; some analysts argue the timing is designed to test US restraint ahead of November’s midterm elections. For import-dependent economies across Asia, the question is no longer whether the strait functions, but at what cost.
What to watch
- UKMTO’s weekly attack tally — whether the 12-ship record is breached again.
- Kpler flow data — whether exports stabilize near 15 million barrels per day or slide further.
- Whether US naval protection expands deeper into the Gulf of Oman and the northern Gulf.
- The JMIC threat assessment — any move away from “severe” would mark a real shift.
- The IMO’s casualty count as investigators verify October’s incidents.
Sources: BBC Verify, Reuters via gCaptain, Al Jazeera, Iran International
